光大期货：1月13日金融日报

Stock Market - The A-share market experienced a significant increase, with Wind All A rising by 1.72% and a trading volume of 3.64 trillion yuan, marking a peak for daily trading volume in October 2024 [3][8] - The CSI 1000 index rose by 2.8%, the CSI 500 index by 2.39%, the CSI 300 index by 0.65%, and the SSE 50 index by 0.3% [3][8] - The rise in indices is primarily driven by global technological advancements, highlighted by the CES event from January 6 to 9, where Nvidia announced its new Rubin architecture, expected to significantly enhance chip efficiency and reduce costs [3][8] - The market is also influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar, leading to noticeable returns in the equity market [3][8] - Geopolitical tensions have increased demand for rare metals, which are strategically significant for high-tech manufacturing and military industries, leading to a short-term price surge [3][9] - Historical trends suggest that after geopolitical clarity, related metals may see inventory releases and price corrections, indicating potential high volatility in the short term [3][9] - Caution is advised in trading at high index levels, with a recommendation to adopt a wait-and-see approach [3][9] Bond Market - On Monday, government bond futures closed with the 30-year main contract up by 0.3%, the 10-year contract up by 0.07%, the 5-year contract up by 0.05%, and the 2-year contract stable [10] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 861 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a bid rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous rate [10] - The market saw a net injection of 361 billion yuan from the 500 billion yuan 7-day reverse repos maturing [10] - The funding environment remains reasonably ample, supporting the bond market, but economic stability, rising inflation, and cautious interest rate cuts pose constraints [10] - The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound pattern in the short term, with upward rate breakthroughs requiring significant inflation increases and downward movements needing guidance from interest rate cuts [10] Precious Metals - Overnight, gold and silver showed strong performance, reaching new historical highs, while platinum and palladium experienced fluctuations [5][10] - Recent legal challenges regarding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, impacting market sentiment [5][10] - Geopolitical issues, particularly conflicts involving the U.S. and Venezuela, as well as tensions in Greenland and Iran, have heightened investor anxiety regarding geopolitical conflicts, sustaining gold's appeal [5][10] - Gold is expected to maintain a strong trend, with platinum and palladium likely to see further gains, while silver presents higher short-term risks [5][10]