光大期货：1月13日农产品日报

Group 1: Soybean and Protein Meal - CBOT soybean prices fell due to the USDA raising the 25/26 U.S. soybean production forecast to 4.262 billion bushels, up from 4.252 billion bushels in December, while lowering export estimates to 1.575 billion bushels from 1.635 billion bushels [2][8] - Domestic protein meal market is fluctuating as it awaits supply and demand report guidance, with active spot transactions and strong price support from oil mills and traders [2][8] - National soybean inventory increased while soybean meal inventory decreased, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][8] Group 2: Palm Oil - BMD palm oil prices increased due to the realization of previously negative reports and positive export data, with MPOB reporting a 7.58% month-on-month increase in December palm oil inventory to 3.05 million tons, exceeding market expectations [3][9] - January 1-10 palm oil exports increased by 18% to 29.2%, with India showing the most significant increase while China’s imports declined [3][9] - Domestic oil prices rose, with palm oil leading the gains, while canola prices faced pressure due to potential policy changes from Canada [3][9] Group 3: Live Pig Market - Live pig futures for the 2603 contract experienced a slight decline of 0.3%, closing at 11,735 yuan per ton, with the national average price for external three-way pigs at 12.69 yuan per kilogram, showing a slight increase [4][6] - The market remains stable with regional price adjustments, particularly in Henan, where prices slightly decreased [4][6] - The breeding sector is tightening supply, supporting prices ahead of the holiday season, with expectations of a continued decline in production capacity [4][6] Group 4: Egg Market - The main 2603 egg contract saw a decline of 0.66%, closing at 3,020 yuan per 500 kilograms, while the average price for brown-shelled eggs in major production areas rose to 3.32 yuan per jin [10] - Market activity is normal with sufficient supply, indicating a rebound in spot prices despite the current cycle being at a low point [10] - Short-term futures are expected to continue rebounding before a slight correction, with attention on whether the main contract can break through long-term moving averages [10] Group 5: Corn Market - The main 2603 corn contract increased in volume and price, nearing the 2,300 yuan mark, driven by bullish sentiment [11] - The spot market is supported by pre-holiday stocking, although recent snowfall in Northeast China may affect supply [11] - Overall market activity is moderate, with stable prices in the sales regions and a diverse purchasing demand, while the pressure from imported corn and substitutes limits price increases [11]