创金合信基金魏凤春：中国资产重估的必要条件和充分条件

Group 1 - The market trend is currently influenced by the acceleration of AI industrialization, which is seen as a core driver for economic transformation and asset appreciation [1][4] - The recent market style has shifted towards a focus on AI and hard technology, while low-valuation defensive sectors are under pressure [1][4] - The new "dumbbell strategy" has emerged, favoring precious metals and technology over traditional defensive assets like long bonds and dividends [2][17] Group 2 - The discussion around the Shanghai Composite Index's 17 consecutive days of gains reflects a debate on market adjustments, but the strategic configuration of dominant industries and the validity of China's asset revaluation are deemed more significant [4][19] - The asset revaluation process is characterized by a systematic reset of asset pricing anchors, influenced by both necessary and sufficient conditions [6][23] - External shocks, such as geopolitical tensions and domestic political risks, are considered low-probability but high-impact events that could affect asset revaluation judgments [4][20] Group 3 - Necessary conditions for asset revaluation include a reconstruction of the capital market ecology and a confirmation of market order, which have seen significant improvement compared to 2025 [8][24] - Sufficient conditions involve a reduction in risk premiums and the implementation of action plans for capital market failures, which are expected to strengthen in 2026 [8][26] - The role of ETFs is becoming increasingly important, as they are expected to enhance market liquidity and pricing efficiency, thus supporting asset revaluation [8][27] Group 4 - The economic recovery signals, such as the rise in CPI and PPI in December 2025, are crucial for restoring corporate pricing power and improving profit margins [29][30] - The transition from liquidity-driven to profit-driven market dynamics is anticipated to become the core theme in the capital market [29][30] - The balance between external liquidity disturbances and internal profit recovery trends is essential for maintaining strategic asset allocation [30]