铁矿：供应面临淡季 港口持续累库

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a high-level fluctuation with strong performance in the spot market, while downstream steel mills continue to purchase based on demand [4] Supply - Global iron ore shipments have slightly decreased but remain at historically high levels, with a total of 32.8 million tons shipped, down by 0.1% [3] - Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 26.06 million tons, a decrease of 136.4 thousand tons, with Australian shipments at 19.32 million tons, down by 8.0 thousand tons [3] - The volume of iron ore arriving at 45 ports increased by 164 thousand tons to 29.2 million tons [3] Demand - Daily average pig iron production is 2.295 million tons, an increase of 20.7 thousand tons [3] - The blast furnace operating rate is 79.31%, up by 0.37% [3] - Steel mill profitability is at 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44% [3] Inventory - As of January 8, port inventory stands at 162.75 million tons, an increase of 3.04 million tons [3] - Steel mills' imported ore inventory increased by 43 thousand tons to 89.8959 million tons [3] Market Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to transition from a state of supply-demand balance to a situation of both supply and demand weakness, with high inventory levels exerting pressure on prices [4] - Short-term price fluctuations are anticipated, with a trading range expected between 770 and 830 [4]