华泰期货：集运指数（欧线）期货昨日大涨，关注船司定价是否有变

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products may impact shipping companies' pricing behavior, leading to potential upward adjustments in the valuation of the 02 contract [2][3][9] Group 1: Shipping Pricing and Contract Valuation - The 02 contract valuation is expected to face upward revision risks due to the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate policy [3][9] - Shipping companies' pricing behavior is under scrutiny, particularly regarding Maersk's quotes in the last week of January and potential price increases in February [2][3] - The MSC price for the second half of January is reported at $2840/FEU, remaining stable compared to the first half, while Maersk's quote for the last week of January from Shanghai to Rotterdam is $2700/FEU, reflecting a $100/FEU increase [2][8] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Seasonal Trends - There is an urgent shipping demand from some solar photovoltaic companies following the policy change, leading to potential export rush [3][9] - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate may disrupt the shipping rhythm for the industry, particularly affecting the 04 contract's seasonal characteristics, with expected increased volatility [3][9] - Historically, April and October are the lowest months for shipping rates, and the recent policy change may alter the shipping volume and actual rates compared to typical years [3][9]