不锈钢：原料支撑维持偏强震荡 成本和需求博弈

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing price fluctuations driven by raw material costs, particularly nickel, while demand remains weak due to seasonal factors [3] Supply - In December, the estimated crude steel production from 43 domestic stainless steel mills was 3.2671 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 226,000 tons (6.47%) and a year-on-year decrease of 5.09% [2] - The production forecast for January is 3.327 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.83% and a year-on-year increase of 16.27% [2] - The 300 series production is expected to decrease by 2.5% month-on-month but increase by 9.78% year-on-year [2] Inventory - Social inventory is decreasing, but high inventory levels remain a concern, with warehouse receipts continuing to trend downward [2] - As of January 9, the social inventory of the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan was 457,400 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15,000 tons [2] - On January 12, stainless steel futures inventory was 47,301 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 92 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is showing strong fluctuations, primarily influenced by nickel prices, with downstream enterprises continuing to purchase based on demand [3] - The Indonesian government's indecision regarding nickel mining quotas has led to sustained market sentiment, despite previous expectations of supply reductions not materializing [3] - Nickel prices have risen, with the Philippine Benguet mine's 1.25% nickel auction reaching $32.5, reflecting an increase [3] - Nickel pig iron prices have also increased, with mainstream transaction prices around 950 yuan per nickel [3] - The chromium market remains firm due to limited resource circulation and slowed supply growth [3] Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to experience a period of adjustment, with a reference range for the main contract set between 13,400 and 14,200 [4]