华泰期货：沪铜昨日上涨，或呈现震荡格局

Core Viewpoint - The copper price has shown resilience despite weak downstream consumption and high inventory levels, with expectations for a peak in the first half of 2026 due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and tight supply conditions [2][9]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - On January 12, 2026, copper prices rose over 3%, hovering around 103,000 yuan/ton, with the weighted index nearing 700,000 contracts [2][8]. - Domestic downstream consumption is weak during the current off-season, leading to increased inventory levels [2][9]. Group 2: Price Outlook - Long-term expectations suggest that copper prices may reach a yearly high in the first half of 2026, influenced by Fed rate cut expectations and tight supply [9]. - Potential bearish factors in the second half of 2026 include changes in the pace of rate cuts and risks associated with Comex inventory flows to non-US regions, which could lead to price fluctuations or corrections [9]. Group 3: Operational Recommendations - For companies with buying hedging needs, it is advised to maintain short-term procurement strategies above 100,000 yuan/ton, and to increase hedging if prices drop to between 98,000 yuan/ton and 99,000 yuan/ton [3][9]. - Companies with selling hedging needs are recommended to operate near previous highs and consider suitable options strategies [3][9].