【建投能化|周报】纯碱玻璃：政策扰动增加，纯碱玻璃低位反弹

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while there are policy disturbances affecting the soda ash market, the fundamentals are limiting upward price movements [4][39]. - Supply of soda ash has increased week-on-week due to reduced maintenance schedules and new capacity coming online, leading to significant pressure on the supply side [4][39]. - Demand for soda ash has slightly decreased, particularly in heavy soda ash, while light soda ash demand remains stable [4][39]. Group 2 - Inventory levels for soda ash have significantly increased, with production company inventories rising sharply and social inventories slightly declining, indicating an overall surplus in supply [4][39]. - The short-term strategy for soda ash is expected to be characterized by low-level fluctuations, with a price range of 1180-1280 for the SA2605 contract [4][40]. - In the medium term, the market is expected to remain bearish due to persistent oversupply, with a focus on selling opportunities after price rebounds [5][40]. Group 3 - The production cost of soda ash has shown slight fluctuations, with the cost for ammonia-based production at 1308 yuan/ton and for co-production at 1648 yuan/ton [11][46]. - The overall operating rate for soda ash production has increased to 84.39%, with weekly production rising to 75.36 million tons [13][49]. - The soda ash sales-to-production ratio has decreased to 78.18%, indicating a decline in market activity [16][53]. Group 4 - The glass market has seen a decrease in supply due to maintenance on production lines, which has positively impacted prices [26][64]. - Demand for glass has slightly decreased, with increased speculative demand noted, particularly in the context of a weak real estate market [26][64]. - Glass inventory has decreased by nearly 7,000 tons week-on-week, indicating improved sales activity [26][75].