博弈升级！加元关键区间震荡待政策油价指引

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently experiencing a slight decline, trading at 1.3879, with a cautious market outlook due to multiple factors [1] - The Bank of Canada has maintained its benchmark interest rate, indicating resilience in the Canadian economy despite U.S. tariff impacts, leading to expectations of a potential end to the rate-cutting cycle [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate-cutting process in 2026, but there are significant internal disagreements regarding the pace of easing, which is limiting the downward trend of the USD [1] Group 2 - The Canadian dollar is closely tied to international oil prices, with recent geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues supporting oil prices, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of Canadian assets [2] - The Canadian economy is showing signs of recovery, with stable core inflation, but faces challenges from U.S. tariff uncertainties and a loosening labor market, which may restrict the appreciation of the Canadian dollar [2] - The USD/CAD exchange rate is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern, having broken below the key support level of 1.3750, currently fluctuating between 1.38 and 1.39 [2] Group 3 - The RSI indicator is currently around 45, indicating a neutral state with no clear overbought or oversold signals, suggesting that the current oscillation pattern may continue until key data or events emerge [3] - Key support levels for the USD/CAD exchange rate are focused on the 1.3800 level, with 1.3750 as a critical support level; a breach could lead to further declines towards 1.3600 [3] - Resistance levels are concentrated in the 1.3820-1.3850 range, with potential upward movement towards the 1.3900 level if this range is maintained [3]