1月澳大利亚消费者悲观情绪加剧

Core Insights - The Westpac Bank and Melbourne Institute report indicates a decline in the consumer confidence index for January 2026, dropping 1.7% to 92.9 points, reflecting ongoing pessimism among consumers [1] - The report highlights that consumer concerns about household finances and the overall economic situation are increasing, despite confidence levels being higher than during the "cost of living" crisis from 2022 to 2024 [1] - A significant factor contributing to the decline in consumer sentiment is the sharp shift in interest rate expectations, with nearly two-thirds of respondents predicting higher mortgage rates in the next 12 months, more than double the proportion from September 2025 [1] Consumer Confidence Indicators - The consumer confidence index for predicting the economic situation over the next year fell 6.5% to 88.4 points, while the five-year economic outlook index increased 0.9% to 96.5 points [1] - The indicator measuring household financial conditions for the next year decreased 4.5% to 97.8 points, while the indicator reflecting changes in household finances over the past year rose 2.3% to 82.7 points [2] - The index for determining the timing of major household purchases increased 0.2% to 99.1 points [2] Housing and Employment Indicators - The housing market index rose 4% to 89.6 points, while the unemployment expectations index increased 2.1% to 129.4 points [2] - The house price expectations index decreased 1.4% to 167.5 points, and the interest rate expectations index rose 5% to 152.8 points [2] Monetary Policy Outlook - Westpac's macroeconomic forecast suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to maintain the cash rate at its next monetary policy meeting on February 2-3, 2026, despite upcoming important data releases [2] - Recent strong inflation data and a rebound in household spending have raised concerns about inflation not being fully contained, although the labor market is showing signs of weakness [2] - Inflation is expected to fall within the target range of 2-3% during 2026, reducing the urgency for the RBA to implement tightening measures [2] Additional Consumer Confidence Insights - The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index rose by 3 points to 84.5 points during the week of January 5-11, although the four-week moving average slightly declined to 83.8 points, remaining below long-term averages [3] - Weekly inflation expectations decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.4%, indicating a slight easing in inflation expectations [3] - The rebound in consumer confidence observed in early January is noted to be the weakest in the past 15 years [3]