政策分化商品支撑澳元

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing limited fluctuations against the US dollar (USD), with market participants awaiting key economic indicators and Federal Reserve guidance [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained the cash rate at 3.6% for three consecutive meetings, indicating a cautious policy stance [2] - Despite a temporary rise in inflation in 2025, the RBA expects inflation to return to the target range of 2%-3% by mid-2025, providing a stable foundation for the AUD [2] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is increasing volatility in the AUD/USD pair, with expectations of a 2.5%-2.75% GDP growth in the US for 2026 and a gradual decline in inflation [2] Group 2: Economic and Commodity Price Support - The Australian economy is projected to grow by 1.5% in the 2025-2026 fiscal year, driven by private consumption and investment, with a recovery in the real estate market [3] - As a commodity currency, the AUD is supported by rising prices of export goods, particularly coal, which is expected to increase by 5%-7% in 2026 [3] - Market sentiment remains mixed, with some institutions believing that the RBA's hawkish tilt and rising commodity prices will support the AUD, while others caution that the Fed's policies may limit AUD gains [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Key Data Indicators - The AUD/USD pair is currently in a short-term consolidation phase, trading within the 0.6700-0.6720 range, with no clear trend signals from the moving averages [4] - Key support levels are identified at 0.6700 and 0.6680, while resistance levels are at 0.6720 and 0.6750, with potential for further upward movement if these levels are breached [4] - Upcoming critical data includes the US NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and CPI, which are expected to influence the strength of the USD and the AUD's performance [4]