美加政策油价博弈与加元震荡

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations, currently trading around 1.3873, with market participants awaiting key economic data for direction [1]. Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Bank of Canada has cut its benchmark interest rate to 3% as of January 2025, marking six consecutive rate cuts, focusing on economic recovery and inflation stability [2]. - The market interprets the end of the rate-cutting cycle for the Bank of Canada, which is expected to provide support for the Canadian dollar and limit the upside potential of the USD/CAD pair [2]. - The Federal Reserve has reduced rates by a total of 75 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75% in 2025, with increasing uncertainty regarding future policy direction [2]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals and Commodity Influence - The Canadian economy is characterized by a mix of resilience and pressure, with gold exports failing to reverse the trade deficit, and consumer and investment momentum remaining insufficient [3]. - As a commodity currency, the Canadian dollar's performance is closely tied to oil prices, which are expected to face downward pressure due to forecasts of oversupply in the global oil market [3]. - Market sentiment indicates limited bullish momentum for the USD/CAD pair, with institutions like CIBC identifying 1.35 as a strong support level, while bearish expectations regarding oil prices and Fed policy uncertainty complicate the outlook [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Key Data Indicators - The technical outlook for USD/CAD shows a clear short-term consolidation pattern around the 1.3870 level, with key support levels at 1.3850 and 1.3800, and strong support at 1.3500 [4]. - Key resistance levels are identified at 1.3910 and 1.3950, with the exchange rate expected to be influenced by upcoming economic data releases, including the US NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and the December CPI [4]. - The focus remains on the US CPI and EIA energy report, as stronger inflation combined with weak oil prices could drive the exchange rate higher, while weak inflation and a rebound in oil prices may test lower support levels [4].