“五角大楼披萨指数”灵不灵？

Core Viewpoint - The "Pentagon Pizza Index" is a humorous yet serious theory suggesting that an increase in late-night pizza orders near the Pentagon can predict significant global events, particularly military actions [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context - The origin of the "Pentagon Pizza Index" dates back to the Cold War, where unusual late-night pizza orders were monitored by the Soviet Union as potential indicators of U.S. military activity [2]. - Significant military events, such as the U.S. invasion of Panama in 1989 and the Gulf War in 1991, coincided with spikes in pizza orders near the Pentagon [2]. - A notable instance occurred on August 1, 1990, when the CIA ordered a record 21 pizzas, just before Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, leading to the Gulf War [2]. Group 2: Recent Observations - On April 13, 2024, a spike in customer traffic at a local pizza shop in Washington, D.C., coincided with Iran's drone launch towards Israel [3]. - A social media account named "Pentagon Pizza Report" was created to monitor real-time data from Google Maps regarding pizza orders in Arlington, Virginia, with significant order increases noted before military actions [4]. Group 3: Credibility and Skepticism - Some observers, including data journalists, find the "Pentagon Pizza Index" to be a surprisingly reliable indicator of global events since the 1980s [5]. - However, academic skepticism exists, with researchers pointing out potential confirmation bias and the need for more data to establish a clear correlation between pizza orders and geopolitical events [6]. - The U.S. Department of Defense has denied the validity of the "Pentagon Pizza Index," stating that there are many food suppliers available for late-night staff, questioning the accuracy of the reported timelines [6].