欧元通胀达标强化 欧银稳利率立场

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is experiencing a narrow fluctuation against the US Dollar, currently trading around 1.1659, reflecting market caution ahead of key inflation data [1] Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a stable policy stance, keeping key interest rates unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% as of December 2025, with inflation in the Eurozone at 2.0%, aligning with the ECB's target [2] - The market anticipates that the ECB will likely keep rates stable in 2026, providing support for the Euro [2] - In contrast, the Federal Reserve's policy path shows divergence, with internal debates on the need for sustained inflation moderation before further rate cuts, which supports the Dollar's resilience [2] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals and Market Sentiment - The Eurozone economy shows moderate resilience, with a growth rate of 1.4% in 2025 and an expected 1.2% in 2026, bolstered by increased fiscal spending in Germany and lower energy costs [3] - However, the recovery within the Eurozone remains uneven, with some member states lacking economic vitality, and global trade uncertainties posing potential pressures on exports [3] - The Euro appreciated over 13.4% against the Dollar in 2025, primarily driven by a weaker Dollar rather than significant improvements in its own fundamentals [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Key Data Indicators - Technically, the Euro to Dollar exchange rate is in a weak consolidation phase, with resistance at the 20-day moving average and support levels at 1.1652 and 1.1640 [4] - Key upcoming data includes the US December NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and the December CPI, which could significantly impact market expectations and the Euro's performance [4] - A stronger-than-expected inflation report could bolster the Dollar and suppress the Euro, while weaker data may lead to a rebound in the Euro [5]