美瑞政策博弈低通胀格局

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the USD/CHF exchange rate, influenced by diverging monetary policies of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Federal Reserve, as well as economic fundamentals and market sentiment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Swiss National Bank has maintained a low inflation environment, with a 2025 inflation rate of only 0.2%, the lowest in five years, and a core inflation rate of just 0.5%, significantly below the central bank's implicit target [2]. - The SNB has cut interest rates six times since 2024, bringing the key rate to 0.0% in June 2025, and has kept rates unchanged in September and December [2]. - Market expectations suggest that the SNB may have room for further easing in 2026, with the March meeting potentially being a window for policy adjustment, which could exert downward pressure on the Swiss franc [2]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The Swiss economy is characterized by low growth and low inflation, with 2025 economic growth expected to remain moderate and no significant recession risks, but insufficient recovery momentum [3]. - The traditional safe-haven appeal of the Swiss franc has been subdued due to stable global risk sentiment, reducing its demand as a safe-haven currency [3]. - The strong Swiss franc has led to a 1.6% decrease in import prices, further suppressing domestic inflation and creating a "low inflation-stable rate" cycle that limits the franc's volatility [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The USD/CHF exchange rate has been oscillating within the 0.87-0.88 range, with balanced bullish and bearish forces [3]. - Some institutions believe that the resilience of Federal Reserve policies will support an upward movement in the exchange rate, targeting 0.8850, while others argue that limited easing space from the SNB and insufficient rebound momentum for the USD may restrict significant upward movement [3]. - Technical indicators show a clear short-term oscillation pattern for USD/CHF, with key support levels at 0.8740 and 0.8700, and resistance levels at 0.8780 and 0.8820 [4].