美国降息预期维持不变有色金属惯性上涨，关注BCOM调仓波动率放大

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a significant increase of 8.56% from January 5 to January 9, ranking among the top in all primary industries [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The sub-sectors within the non-ferrous metal industry showed strong performance, with the small metals sector rising by 11.67%, metal new materials by 9.02%, industrial metals by 8.52%, precious metals by 7.28%, and energy metals by 6.30% during the same period [1][2]. - Industrial metals saw a broad increase due to a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with expectations of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, maintaining an optimistic sentiment in the market [2][3]. Group 2: Copper Market Insights - Copper prices strengthened, with LME copper closing at $12,998 per ton (up 4.1% week-on-week) and SHFE copper at 101,410 yuan per ton (up 3.23% week-on-week) [3]. - Supply disruptions occurred, including a strike at a small copper mine in Chile and delays in production at the Mirador mine in Ecuador due to political changes [3]. - The overall macro sentiment remains bullish, supported by an increase in registered warehouse receipts for copper, which is expected to maintain a strong price trend in the short term [3]. Group 3: Aluminum Market Insights - The copper-aluminum price ratio's upward trend provided upward support for aluminum prices, with LME aluminum closing at $3,136 per ton (up 3.81% week-on-week) and SHFE aluminum at 24,330 yuan per ton (up 6.13% week-on-week) [4]. - New production capacity in Inner Mongolia increased theoretical operating capacity to 44.265 million tons, while demand showed a slight decline in utilization rates for aluminum products [4]. - Market sentiment remains bullish, with increased trading activity in the spot market and expectations for aluminum prices to trend upward [4]. Group 4: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices increased, with COMEX gold closing at $4,518.40 per ounce (up 4.07% week-on-week) and SHFE gold at 1,006.48 yuan per gram (up 2.96% week-on-week) [5]. - U.S. labor market data showed weaker-than-expected job growth, contributing to the bullish sentiment in precious metals, with expectations of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [5]. - The upcoming BCOM rebalancing is anticipated to amplify market volatility, with a shift in silver leasing rates indicating a reduction in overseas spot tightness [5].