威廉姆斯鹰派压制降息预期 金价高位震荡

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - London gold is currently trading around 1026 CNY/gram, with the latest price at 1027.10 CNY/gram, reflecting a decline of 0.41%. The highest price reached was 1033.27 CNY/gram, while the lowest was 1026.25 CNY/gram, indicating a short-term sideways trend in the market [1]. - The daily chart shows that gold prices have been closing with gains, despite a pullback at the end of the previous day. The current price is above the upper boundary of the daily chart, suggesting two possible scenarios: a potential upward movement after a pullback or the formation of a "piercing line" pattern if prices reach the upper channel boundary near 4650 [4]. - Key support levels are identified at 4578, 462, 4506, and 4463, while resistance levels are noted at 4600, 4609, 4625, 4648, and 4687 [5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Policy - New York Fed President Williams indicated that the U.S. economy is expected to grow healthily by 2026, suggesting no immediate need for interest rate cuts. He stated that the Federal Open Market Committee has adjusted monetary policy to a "near-neutral" level, balancing employment stability and inflation targeting at 2% [2]. - Williams projected a GDP growth rate of 2.5%-2.75% for the year, with the unemployment rate stabilizing and inflation peaking at 2.75%-3% in the first half of the year before declining to 2.5% for the full year, returning to the 2% target by 2027 [2]. - The backdrop of these statements includes unprecedented attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve, with political pressures potentially impacting future policy decisions [3].