沥青：传统淡季迎冲高行情

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is experiencing a price surge due to international supply disruptions, but this is expected to be temporary as demand remains weak and inventory levels are high [1][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - In late December 2025, the average ex-factory price of 70 asphalt in Shandong was 2900 yuan per ton, which rose to a peak of 3150 yuan by January 5, 2026, marking a significant increase [2]. - The futures market also reflected this trend, with the asphalt 2602 contract rising by 4.4% within a week [2]. - The price fluctuations are linked to a significant reduction in Venezuelan crude oil exports, which have decreased sharply, impacting regional raw material availability [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The asphalt market is currently constrained by weak demand and high inventory levels, with a reported asphalt production of 553,000 tons in the last week before New Year's, a 14% increase week-on-week [4]. - The operating rate for modified asphalt production was only 20%, continuing a four-week decline, while Shandong's refineries reported a 19% increase in shipments to 148,600 tons [4]. - Social and factory inventories reached 666,000 tons, up 4% week-on-week, indicating a weak fundamental structure in the off-season [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Domestic asphalt consumption is projected to reach 30.78 million tons in 2025, an increase of 1.88 million tons or 6.49% year-on-year [5]. - However, the real estate market is expected to slow down, and infrastructure investments will focus more on quality and efficiency, leading to a decline in overall asphalt demand [5]. - The total asphalt supply for the year is estimated at 31.43 million tons, with a supply-demand gap of approximately 880,000 tons, indicating a trend of oversupply [5][6].