【石油和化工行业景气指数】2025年12月：终端需求改善 景气指数上涨

Core Insights - The oil and chemical industry prosperity index rose to 100.91 in December 2025, indicating signs of recovery with a month-on-month increase of 3.7 percentage points [2][10] - The sub-indices show significant divergence: the oil and gas extraction sector continues to decline due to low oil prices, while the fuel processing industry benefits from cost advantages as demand stabilizes [2][10] Industry Overview - The oil and gas extraction sector's prosperity index fell to 93.20, a decrease of 3.52 percentage points, entering a cold zone for the first time in four months, reflecting a negative cycle of price drops leading to reduced production and increased inventory [10] - The fuel processing industry saw its index rise to 114.45, an increase of 19.77 percentage points, demonstrating high volatility driven by alternating cost and demand factors [11] - The chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector's index decreased to 95.62, down 6.75 percentage points, as downstream industries reduced procurement following inventory digestion [11] - The rubber, plastic, and other polymer products manufacturing sector's index increased to 100.97, up 7.02 percentage points, due to proactive inventory reduction strategies [12] Market Trends - China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.1% in December 2025, signaling a recovery in manufacturing activity and potential support for the chemical industry [3][15] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, which may benefit downstream sectors by lowering costs, although the upstream oil and gas extraction sector remains under pressure [4][16] Future Outlook - In January 2026, the oil and chemical industry is expected to experience a gradual recovery characterized by macroeconomic improvements and structural differentiation, with downstream sectors likely recovering before upstream [8][18] - The overall trend indicates that while upstream sectors face ongoing challenges, the downstream sectors may benefit from lower costs and potential demand recovery [17][18]