万联证券：2025年电影票房强势增长 动画电影成为市场核心驱动力

Core Viewpoint - The film market is expected to experience significant growth in 2025, with total box office revenue projected to increase by 22.0% to 51.83 billion yuan, primarily driven by the success of "Ne Zha," which contributed approximately 30% of the total box office revenue for the year [1][2]. Group 1: Box Office Performance - The total box office for 2025 is forecasted to reach 51.83 billion yuan, marking a 22.0% year-on-year increase [2]. - "Ne Zha" is anticipated to generate 15.4 billion yuan in box office revenue, significantly impacting the overall market performance [1][2]. - The number of moviegoers is expected to rise by 22.6% to 1.238 billion, with an average ticket price remaining stable at 41.9 yuan [2]. Group 2: Film Supply and Quality - The number of new films released in 2025 is projected to be 465, a decrease of 34 films compared to the previous year, indicating a trend of "less quantity, more quality" in domestic films [3]. - Despite the reduction in the number of new releases, the box office revenue from domestic films is expected to increase by 26.5% to 41.06 billion yuan, reflecting improved content quality [3]. - Animation films are becoming a dominant force in the market, with their box office share rising from 16.6% in 2024 to 49.4% in 2025 [3]. Group 3: Cinema Growth and Industry Leaders - The number of newly built cinemas in 2025 is projected to reach 1,065, a 3.8% increase year-on-year, with 6,206 new screens added [4]. - The operational performance of cinemas shows a 2.5% increase in the number of operating cinemas and a 1.1% increase in the number of screens compared to 2024 [4]. - Wanda Cinemas continues to maintain its leading position in the industry, achieving a box office revenue of 869 million yuan, accounting for 16.76% of the market [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The film market's growth in 2025, particularly in the animation sector led by "Ne Zha," presents investment opportunities in companies that can consistently produce quality content and develop animation and series IP [5]. - Attention is recommended for cinema operators with high operational efficiency and those involved in the production of quality content [5].