比去年贵了近一倍？西红柿为何涨价，何时能降？

Core Viewpoint - The price of tomatoes has significantly increased, becoming a focal point in the vegetable market, driven by multiple factors including reduced planting area, extreme weather, and seasonal cost increases [5][6][10]. Price Trends - As of January 8, 2026, local prices for tomatoes in Yanggu County, Shandong, reached 5 to 6.5 yuan per jin, nearly double compared to the previous year [1]. - The average wholesale price of tomatoes in December 2025 was 8.59 yuan per kilogram, marking a 23.4% increase month-on-month and a 76.4% increase year-on-year [4]. - The highest price recorded was 9.36 yuan per kilogram on December 26, 2025, with a slight decrease to 8.4 yuan per kilogram by January 4, 2026 [4]. Supply Factors - The planting area for tomatoes has decreased due to low prices in previous years, leading to a contraction in supply [6][8]. - Adverse weather conditions, including excessive rainfall and temperature drops, have severely impacted tomato yields and delayed market entry [8][9]. - The transition to winter production has increased costs, as supply shifts from open-field to high-cost greenhouse production [9]. Market Dynamics - The demand for tomatoes is expected to remain high due to the upcoming Spring Festival, which will likely support elevated price levels [10][11]. - Experts predict that the market will experience high price fluctuations leading up to the festival, with a potential return to normal levels around late March 2026 [13]. Supply Chain Insights - There is a reliance on regions like Hebei for potential relief in supply, as they have replanted after adverse conditions [13]. - Local agricultural departments are providing support to farmers to improve yield and reduce supply chain pressures [13].