展望2026年资本市场：结构性机遇点亮投资新航程

Group 1: Capital Market Overview - The year 2026 is seen as a critical year for the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the capital market at a pivotal point for policy reform and industrial transformation [1] - The capital market is expected to exhibit structural characteristics such as "technology-driven leadership, breakthroughs in green sectors, and coordinated consumer investment" [1] - By the end of 2025, various long-term funds held approximately 23 trillion yuan in A-share market value, a 36% increase from the beginning of the year [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Economic Indicators - The focus on adjusting the structure of listed companies aims to attract long-term funds like insurance and pension funds to enhance market liquidity [2] - A significant reduction in market volatility was noted, with the number of trading days where the index fell more than 1% being the lowest in recent bull markets [2] - The nominal GDP is projected to rise from 4.0% in 2025 to 4.5% in 2026, indicating an improvement in corporate profitability [2] Group 3: Technology and AI Focus - A consensus among nearly 60 experts indicates that technology, particularly AI and its related industries, will be the core focus of the capital market in 2026 [3] - The application of AI across various industries is expected to drive significant capital expenditure from major companies [3] - The potential for domestic replacement in AI hardware and models is anticipated to be a key investment theme for the next five years [3] Group 4: Green Transition and Energy Sector - The construction of a new energy system is identified as a core engine for the "dual carbon" transition, emphasizing clean energy sources like solar, wind, and hydrogen [5] - The dual carbon goals present systemic opportunities in clean energy and related sectors, with a shift from demonstration to large-scale application [5] - The demand for new technologies and equipment in traditional industrial energy-saving transformations and the electric vehicle supply chain is expected to grow [5] Group 5: Policy and Consumer Investment - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference prioritized domestic demand, shifting the policy focus from merely stimulating consumption to enhancing income and optimizing supply [7] - Structural opportunities in consumer spending are anticipated, particularly in sectors like healthcare, tourism, and sports, driven by policies aimed at increasing residents' income [7] - Investment strategies will focus on optimizing project efficiency and structure, with significant attention on rural revitalization and urban renewal initiatives [7]