黄金时间·每日论金：金价多头形态完好 仍需警惕高位波动风险

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, with significant fluctuations influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic data, highlighting gold's role as a safe-haven asset [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - On January 12, gold prices opened above $4600 per ounce, reaching a high of $4640.5 and closing up 2% at $4608.8, while spot gold hit a record high of $4630 per ounce [1] - Following a strong performance, gold prices experienced a mild retreat on January 13 due to margin adjustments by the CME and comments from Federal Reserve officials, indicating short-term profit-taking pressure [1] Group 2: Driving Factors - Key drivers for the current gold price surge include ongoing geopolitical tensions leading to increased safe-haven demand, disappointing U.S. economic data (e.g., December non-farm payrolls adding only 50,000 jobs), and the continuous accumulation of gold by the People's Bank of China [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's potential shift towards easing monetary policy, especially in light of the investigation into Powell, has weakened the dollar and further supported gold prices [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, gold prices are above the 5-week and 10-week moving averages, with a bullish trend indicated by the upward extension of the Bollinger Bands [2] - Short-term support is identified in the $4540-$4550 range, while resistance is focused on $4640 and historical highs, with RSI indicators suggesting overbought conditions [2] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, with core support logic strengthening; potential for gold prices to reach $5100 exists if geopolitical risks escalate or if rate cuts exceed expectations [2][3] Group 5: Investment Strategy - In the current macro environment characterized by "monetary credit turmoil and geopolitical uncertainty," gold's value as a safe-haven asset is emphasized, though short-term volatility risks should be monitored [3] - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of "buying on dips and controlling positions" while closely tracking signals such as easing geopolitical tensions, shifts in Federal Reserve policy, and changes in global central bank gold purchasing patterns [3]