与特朗普硬刚，美联储守护独立性，多名官员谴责刑事调查鲍威尔

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing criminal investigation against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by the U.S. Department of Justice has raised significant concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and has sparked fears of a potential "sell-off" of U.S. assets in the market [1][10]. Group 1: Investigation Background - The investigation appears to center around the renovation project of the Federal Reserve's office building, but it is fundamentally rooted in the long-standing monetary policy disagreements between President Trump and Powell [3]. - On January 9, 2026, the DOJ issued a subpoena to the Federal Reserve, threatening criminal charges against Powell related to his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee regarding the renovation project, which saw its budget increase from approximately $1.9 billion to nearly $2.5 billion [3]. - Powell has publicly stated that the criminal investigation is a "pretext" to undermine the Federal Reserve's independence in setting interest rates, asserting that the government’s threats are due to the Fed's decisions based on public interest rather than presidential wishes [3]. Group 2: Support for Powell - In response to unprecedented pressure, Powell received collective support from former officials in the U.S. financial sector, including three former Federal Reserve Chairs and four bipartisan former Treasury Secretaries, who condemned the DOJ's actions as an unprecedented attempt to undermine central bank independence [4]. - Janet Yellen expressed that the situation creates a "chilling effect" and is alarming for Powell's potential successors, noting her surprise at the market's muted reaction [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve officials, including John Williams, have chosen to respond firmly to political pressures, emphasizing the need to maintain the independence of monetary policy [7][9]. - Williams stated that current monetary policy is neutral concerning employment and inflation targets, indicating no need for interest rate cuts in the short term, while also highlighting the importance of restoring inflation to the 2% target [9]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that if the independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised, it could lead to a threefold crisis: decreased investor confidence in U.S. dollar assets, increased long-term borrowing costs, and accelerated global de-dollarization [10]. - Following the announcement of the criminal investigation, the Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.2%, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose, and gold prices reached a historic high [10]. - JPMorgan's trading team noted that concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence were a major driver of market activity, suggesting that this theme could dominate market narratives moving forward [11].