智通财经网·2026-01-13 07:08Core Viewpoint - The restaurant supply industry is experiencing a gradual easing of competition, with a consensus forming around this trend. The key to significant improvement in the sector in 2026 will depend on demand-side changes, with a prolonged bottoming period expected if demand remains stagnant [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Competition - Recent years have seen a weak recovery in the restaurant sector, leading to increased competition under pressure for market share. However, the marginal benefits from price competition have significantly decreased, and leading companies are advocating for rational competition. The profit margins in the sector rebounded in Q3 2025, indicating this shift [1][3]. - As the peak season approaches in Q4 2025 and January 2026, competition continues to ease, with companies like Anjijia adjusting promotional policies for certain products [1][3]. Group 2: New Growth Opportunities - Leading companies are actively seeking new growth through new products, channels, and markets. Anjijia is focusing on new product development and has adjusted its strategy to embrace supermarket customization, becoming a supplier for major retailers like Walmart and Sam's Club. The company is also planning to enter the halal market, which presents significant potential [2]. - Baoli Foods is enhancing its B2B business by tapping into existing customers and attracting new ones, while also maintaining a steady pace of new product launches in the C-end market [2]. - Babbi Foods has received positive feedback for its new store model, which is performing at 2-3 times the efficiency of traditional takeout stores, indicating potential for exceeding store opening expectations [2]. - Yihai International is expected to maintain robust growth in its B2B and overseas businesses, with a gradual stabilization anticipated for its related parties [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market consensus is optimistic about the easing competition in the industry, with key uncertainties revolving around demand recovery, sustained improvement in market structure, and the potential for new products/channels/markets to generate significant incremental growth. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is rising, which may restore consumer confidence, and there is anticipation for more domestic demand stimulus policies [3]. - The current low valuation of the sector suggests potential for a "Davis Double," where earnings exceed expectations, leading to a significant price increase [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The restaurant supply sector has passed its worst operational phase, with competition becoming more rational. Leading companies are making strides in new products, channels, and markets. Given the low valuations, the sector is expected to show elasticity, and a positive outlook is maintained. Key investment recommendations include Anjijia Foods, Baoli Foods, Lihai Foods, Babbi Foods, and Yihai International [4].