冬储补库刚需逐步升温 铁矿石期货震荡偏强运行

News Summary - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the increase in iron ore inventory in major ports of Australia and Brazil, along with changes in shipping volumes and market sentiment affecting iron ore prices [1][3]. Group 1: Inventory and Shipping Data - As of January 5-11, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil reached 12.552 million tons, an increase of 969,000 tons from the previous period [1]. - In the second week of January 2026, Brazil's iron ore stock was 10.461 million tons, down from 30.8902 million tons in January of the previous year, with an average daily shipment of 1.7435 million tons, reflecting a 24.17% increase compared to January of last year [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Trends - Market sentiment and funding are driving significant price increases in the black commodities sector, although a correction is expected as macroeconomic sentiments fade [3]. - The first quarter is entering a seasonally sensitive weather period in major production areas of Australia and Brazil, which may lead to temporary reductions in shipments [3]. - Current iron and steel production is showing signs of recovery, with expectations of steel mill restarts in January and increasing demand for inventory replenishment, providing short-term support for iron ore prices [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The commissioning of the West Simandou project is expected to further ease supply expectations [4]. - On the demand side, while exports remain somewhat stable, domestic demand in real estate and infrastructure is still seeking a bottom, indicating weak support for internal demand [4]. - Technically, after breaking through previous levels, a pullback is anticipated, but the low-buy strategy remains unchanged for the time being [4].