高市早苗财政政策成日元“拖油瓶” 日本央行或被迫于4月提前加息

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is weakening due to market concerns over Prime Minister Kishida's "dangerous" fiscal policy, leading to speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as April [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Former Bank of Japan committee member Makoto Sakurai suggests that the central bank must raise rates at least once before June or July, with a possibility of an earlier increase in April [1]. - Market expectations indicate a 40% probability of a rate hike in April, which would be earlier than the consensus [4]. Group 2: Yen Depreciation and Fiscal Policy - The yen has depreciated significantly, reaching a one-year low of 158.50 against the dollar, influenced by reports of Kishida's plans for early elections [1]. - Concerns over Kishida's fiscal stance are expected to keep the yen weak, impacting the central bank's rate decisions due to rising import costs exacerbating inflation [4]. Group 3: Fiscal Measures and Market Reaction - Kishida has announced the largest supplementary budget since the pandemic and the largest initial budget for the next fiscal year, aiming for an active yet responsible fiscal policy [5]. - Despite rising tax revenues due to inflation, Sakurai criticizes Kishida's approach of committing to spending without securing funding sources, labeling it as a loose and dangerous practice [5]. - The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds reached a historic high of 3.52%, reflecting market skepticism about the government's long-term fiscal position [5].