工厂取消休假！光伏产品出口退税将全面取消，一波抢运潮来袭

Core Viewpoint - The announcement to cancel the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, will increase export costs for solar companies, prompting many to expedite shipments before the deadline [1]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The cancellation of the 9% export VAT rebate is expected to raise export costs for photovoltaic companies, leading to increased urgency in shipping products before the policy takes effect [1]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association noted that since 2024, the export prices of photovoltaic products have been declining, indicating a "volume increase, price decrease" trend [2]. - The adjustment in export VAT is seen as a long-term measure to stabilize export prices and reduce trade friction, although it is not the sole solution to the industry's challenges [2]. Group 2: Shipping and Logistics - A surge in shipping demand is anticipated as companies rush to export before the policy change, which may help alleviate seasonal declines in shipping rates [2]. - As of January 9, the Shanghai export container freight index was at 1647.39 points, down 0.5% from the previous period, with slight fluctuations in shipping rates across various routes [2]. - Despite the urgency from manufacturers, logistics companies indicate that the impact of the VAT policy change has not yet fully reached the logistics sector, and some companies have already developed contingency plans [2]. Group 3: Future Projections - Following the VAT policy adjustment, a significant drop in photovoltaic component export volumes is expected, with potential shipping volumes post-Chinese New Year estimated between 9,300 to 12,300 FEU per month [3][4]. - The main contract for the European shipping index (EC2604) experienced a notable increase, suggesting that the upcoming policy change may provide temporary support for shipping rates [3][4]. - Analysts predict that while there may be short-term benefits from increased shipping activity, the overall export volume of photovoltaic components will likely decline significantly in the future, putting pressure on long-term shipping rates [4].