为保中期选举 特朗普向两种利率“下手”

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is exerting pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which is seen as a challenge to the Fed's independence and reflects the political pressures ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [1] Group 1: Economic Context - The upcoming 2026 midterm elections are critical for the Trump administration, as a loss for the Republican Party could alter the balance of power in Congress, impacting policy implementation and Trump's political future [1] - Rising living costs are increasing public concern about the future, with a New York Fed survey indicating a worsening perception of credit access among households compared to the previous year [1] - The probability of consumers being unable to make minimum debt payments in the next three months has risen by 1.6 percentage points to 15.3%, the highest level since April 2020, particularly affecting older individuals, those with lower education, and households earning under $50,000 annually [1] Group 2: Policy Measures - The Trump administration is focusing on improving consumer debt affordability, with Trump proposing a cap on credit card interest rates at 10% for one year starting January 20, despite lacking legal support for this measure [2] - Trump's call for a credit card interest rate cap has faced criticism, with concerns that it could lead to credit card companies withdrawing services, forcing consumers to seek high-interest loans [2] - Additionally, Trump has requested Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to lower interest rates and monthly payments, indicating direct intervention in financial markets [3] Group 3: Market Implications - The administration's strategy of targeting credit card and mortgage rates is seen as a more immediate approach compared to influencing the federal funds rate, which has seen limited adjustments by the Fed [4] - The effectiveness of Trump's request for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy mortgage bonds in genuinely reducing mortgage burdens remains uncertain, as mortgage rates typically follow the trends of long-term U.S. Treasury yields [4]