短期基本面表现良好 丙烯期货维持震荡

Market Overview - As of January 12, the total number of propylene futures warehouse receipts recorded was 15,445 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a cumulative decrease of 302 lots over the past month, representing a decline of 1.92% [1] - On January 12, the propylene spot price was reported at 5,921 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.85%. Over the past week, the price rose by 176.67 yuan/ton, or 3.08%, while it fell by 299.75 yuan/ton over the past month, a decrease of 4.82% [1] Institutional Insights - Guotai Junan Futures indicates that multiple favorable factors are driving propylene prices higher, with both futures and spot prices rising. Supply-side factors include expected maintenance of several PDH units, with February operating rates projected to drop significantly to around 65%. Additionally, the imposition of consumption tax on naphtha is expected to raise costs for cracking units, potentially leading to reduced operating loads. Geopolitical uncertainties in Iran may also disrupt costs for propane and methanol, while MTO main units are reporting shutdowns [2] - Demand-side factors show that while polypropylene (PP) operating rates have decreased this week, they remain relatively high, with profit recovery in powder materials leading to a return of external sourcing. The cancellation of export tax rebates for polyether has triggered a rush for exports, providing strong support for propylene demand. Overall, the short-term fundamentals for propylene appear strong, with an upward trend expected [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Ruida Futures, China's propylene production for the week of January 2-8 was 1.242 million tons, an increase of 0.38 million tons from the previous week, reflecting a growth rate of 0.31%. The operating rates of downstream propylene factories showed mixed trends, with the highest increase in the operating rate of octanol due to the new capacity of Jiangsu Huachang [3] - Several facilities, including Jiangsu Huachang, Zhejiang Satellite, and Shandong Jianlan, have resumed normal production. However, the operating rate of polypropylene granules has seen the largest decline, primarily due to shutdowns at facilities such as Lihe Zhixin and Donghua Energy. Currently, the supply and demand for propylene are relatively balanced, with futures expected to remain volatile, focusing on support around the 5,900 yuan level [3]