野村证券陆挺：未来五年，黄金价格很难跌但持续大涨不太可能

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among investors is that gold prices are unlikely to drop this year, with expectations of continued growth, albeit at a slower rate compared to the previous two years [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have seen significant increases in recent years, with a 50% rise last year and a 30% rise the year before [1][3]. - The market has undergone a one-time pricing adjustment for gold, but there remains some room for further adjustments [1][3][4]. - The difficulty of achieving annual increases of 30-50% in gold prices is acknowledged, indicating a potential for more moderate growth moving forward [1][3]. Group 2: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to track gold prices and select an appropriate benchmark, which varies between domestic and international markets due to differing interest rates [4]. - In the international market, gold investments must outperform U.S. Treasury yields, currently at approximately 4.2% for 10-year bonds and 4.8% for 30-year bonds [4]. - If annual gold price increases fall below 4%, investments in gold may not be successful, contributing to the forecast that while gold prices are unlikely to drop in the next five years, substantial increases are also improbable [4].