Core Viewpoint - The current financial market is experiencing a typical risk-averse trading pattern, with significant inflows into precious metals as U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar face pressure, leading to a surge in gold prices [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices soared nearly 2% on January 13, closing at $4,597 per ounce, with an intraday peak of $4,630, reflecting heightened investor interest in safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainties and Federal Reserve policy turmoil [1][7]. - Silver prices also surged, reaching a historical high of $86.24 per ounce before closing at $85.15, marking a 6.5% increase, driven by its smaller market capacity and sensitivity to capital inflows [10]. Group 2: Fundamental Drivers - The criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by the Trump administration has emerged as a key catalyst for the surge in gold prices, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][9]. - The U.S. Department of Justice's threat to pursue criminal charges against Powell regarding his testimony on a $2.5 billion renovation project has intensified market anxieties [2][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif indicated Iran's readiness for any potential U.S. military actions, emphasizing a well-prepared military stance compared to previous conflicts [3][10]. - Hungary's Foreign Minister warned that military involvement by the UK and France in Ukraine could escalate direct conflicts with Russia, posing risks to neighboring countries [3][10]. - Greenland's autonomous government rejected any U.S. takeover, asserting its status as part of Denmark and NATO, warning that such actions could lead to the end of NATO [3][10]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The technical analysis of gold indicates a complex short-term direction, with recent geopolitical tensions reigniting market risk aversion, leading to emotional trading patterns [4][11]. - A breakthrough above the $4,580-$4,600 resistance level is viewed as a potential "false breakout," reliant on continued positive fundamental support to maintain strength [4][11]. - The market is currently in a corrective phase, with key support levels to watch at $4,560 and potential gaps to fill around $4,520-$4,510 [4][11]. Group 5: Trading Recommendations - A trading strategy suggests short positions near $4,610 with a stop-loss at $4,620, targeting a decline towards $4,580-$4,570, while remaining aware of the market's emotional state and dependence on fundamental news [5][12].
李鑫恒:黄金高位震荡 晚间CPI数据或定方向
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-13 08:12