上海社科院世界经济研究所孙立行：展望“十五五”时期，人民币国际化必须与国家整体发展战略相互配合

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period marks a historical turning point for China's financial system, emphasizing the construction of a financial powerhouse and the development of five key financial areas to support new productive forces and enhance the real economy [1][15]. Group 1: RMB Internationalization - RMB internationalization must align with the overall national development strategy and continue to advance as a crucial component of building a financial powerhouse [3][18]. - The internationalization of RMB is not only about trade settlement but also involves investment pricing and official reserve functions, which are currently limited compared to the "petrodollar" system [3][20]. - Institutional openness will be a key driver for RMB internationalization, particularly in the commodity sector, where RMB is expected to play a larger role in pricing [4][19]. Group 2: Challenges and Opportunities - RMB internationalization faces two main constraints: the need for a stable economic foundation and the necessity to enrich the offshore financial asset system [5][20]. - The current supply of investable RMB assets abroad is limited, which restricts its use in international markets [7][21]. - The development of offshore bond markets is crucial, as they provide stable and appreciating investment options for foreign RMB holders [6][16]. Group 3: Offshore Financial System - A complete offshore financial system is essential for facilitating RMB internationalization, addressing the issue of RMB funds lacking investment opportunities post-settlement [7][21]. - The offshore bond market, particularly through instruments like dim sum bonds, needs to expand in scale and liquidity to enhance RMB's international presence [6][22]. - The design of offshore financial systems should be more open than onshore systems, serving as a "testing ground" for capital account liberalization [9][25]. Group 4: Regulatory Framework - The recent upgrades to the FT account system in the Pudong Free Trade Zone aim to enhance the offshore attributes of financial accounts, facilitating cross-border transactions [10][24]. - The focus should be on creating a robust offshore settlement platform that integrates effectively with the RMB cross-border payment system (CIPS) [12][26]. - The development of offshore reinsurance is also critical for supporting international business operations and managing risk exposure [27]. Group 5: Risk Management - There is a common misconception that offshore finance inherently increases risk; however, it can also provide important functions for risk hedging and diversification [28][29]. - The diversity of financial products in offshore markets can help market participants manage and mitigate risks effectively [28][29]. - Coordinated development between offshore and onshore financial systems is essential to avoid regulatory arbitrage and ensure effective risk management [29].