机构：未来五年中国商品住宅交易总量或稳定在8-9亿平方米

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese residential real estate market is expected to stabilize, with total transaction volume for new and second-hand homes projected to remain between 800 million to 900 million square meters from 2026 to 2030 [2]. Group 1: Market Trends - In 2025, the total transaction area for new residential properties is estimated at approximately 390 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.9%, while the transaction value is expected to be around 5.4 trillion yuan, down 10% year-on-year [1]. - The peak year for new home transactions was 2021, with a transaction area of 990 million square meters and a transaction value of 13.1 trillion yuan, indicating that the 2025 transaction scale has fallen to about half of the peak [1]. - The second-hand housing market is projected to reach a record high of 450 million square meters in transaction area for 2025, surpassing the previous peak of 338 million square meters in 2021 [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to see a slight recovery in total transaction volume in 2026 compared to 2025, with a strong likelihood of maintaining a stable demand for housing [2]. - The next five years (2026-2030) are anticipated to see annual transaction volumes stabilize at 800 million to 900 million square meters, driven by significant existing demand and urbanization [2]. - There is an expectation of market capacity differentiation among cities, with a potential reshuffling of first to fourth-tier cities based on factors such as population inflow, industrial support, and policy direction [2].