长江有色：13日铅价下跌 按需采购为主缺乏主动补库意愿

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a short-term weak trend due to multiple pressures from macro sentiment, industrial fundamentals, and capital flows [2] Group 1: Market Performance - Today's Shanghai lead futures showed a downward trend, with the main contract closing at 17,360 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan, a decrease of 0.57% [1] - The latest price for London lead is reported at 2,053 USD, remaining stable [1] - The average price for the ccmn Longjiang comprehensive 1 lead is 17,300 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows a contradiction, with primary lead smelting operating at a relatively high rate, but raw material supply remains tight [2] - Domestic lead concentrate processing fees are running at low levels, and import processing fees are still in a deep negative range [2] - The demand side is experiencing structural differentiation, with traditional consumption entering a seasonal off-peak period and electric bicycle battery orders weakening [3] Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Trends - The entire industry chain exhibits a characteristic of "tight raw materials, loose finished products," with lead concentrate inventories at moderate levels while recycled lead raw material inventories are significantly lower than in previous years [3] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend, supported by raw material costs and low inventories, while being pressured by weak demand and capital diversion [3] - The lead market is at a critical stage of supply-demand rebalancing, with short-term oscillation expected [3]