Group 1 - The core concern is the threat from the Trump administration to investigate Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, raising worries about the Fed's independence, which led to a significant increase in gold prices, reaching record highs before stabilizing [1][4] - Gold prices experienced a 2% increase in the previous trading day, settling around $4,585 per ounce, while the US dollar weakened and US Treasury yields fell across the board [1][4] - The market is anticipating the latest US CPI report, with expectations of a 0.3% month-over-month increase in core CPI and a slight rise in the year-over-year rate from 2.6% to 2.7% [1][4] Group 2 - Following the release of the US non-farm payroll data, the market is betting that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts for a longer period, with traders estimating a 45% chance of a rate cut in April and a higher likelihood in June [2][5] - Despite economic growth, persistent inflation concerns continue to solidify gold's role as a safe-haven asset, with one-year inflation expectations remaining at 4.2% and five-year expectations rising to 3.4% [2][5] Group 3 - Short-term reactions to the CPI report may lead to a technical pullback in gold prices if the CPI exceeds expectations, but this is seen as profit-taking rather than a fundamental shift [3][6] - The fundamental drivers for gold prices include central bank purchases under "de-dollarization" and global geopolitical risks, suggesting that any price pullbacks may be temporary [3][6] - Regardless of the CPI report's outcome, the mid-term narrative of falling inflation, economic soft landing, potential Fed rate cuts by mid-year, and a structural bull market for gold is unlikely to change [3][6]
ATFX:当黄金不再只看CPI脸色 破纪录后什么才是真正的推手
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-13 09:32