OEXN:避险资产新动向

Core Viewpoint - The global market is currently at the intersection of political uncertainty and macroeconomic policy conflicts, leading to a significant increase in risk premiums in traditional financial markets. Bitcoin has shown resilience, rising 1% to a peak of $92,000, despite a general decline in U.S. stock futures [1][2]. Group 1: Bitcoin and Market Dynamics - Bitcoin, traditionally viewed as a risk asset highly correlated with the Nasdaq index, has recently decoupled from it, demonstrating strong resilience as Nasdaq futures fell by 0.8% and S&P 500 futures by 0.5% [3]. - Investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a "digital safe haven" to hedge against potential fiscal risks and uncertainties in monetary policy due to anticipated interference from administrative powers [3]. Group 2: Macro Financial Data - The U.S. dollar index has decreased from a high of 99.26 to 99.00, contrasting sharply with the strong performance of traditional safe-haven assets like gold, which has surged to a historical high of $4,600 per ounce [4]. - The current market dynamics reflect deepening concerns about the stability of the existing financial order, as both stocks and currencies face pressure while gold prices rise [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Despite pressure from the Trump administration to lower interest rates to 1% or lower, the Federal Reserve is inclined to maintain current rates until May, having only reduced rates by 25 basis points to 3.5% recently, which remains far from the administration's aggressive expectations [2][4]. - The discord between the Federal Reserve's stance and political expectations raises concerns about the central bank's independence, which historically signals potential instability in national currency credibility [4]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor cross-asset capital flows and consider diversified asset allocations to mitigate risks associated with policy fluctuations as political and economic conflicts intensify [4].