Moneta Markets外汇:贵金属超买风险加剧

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market is at a crossroads of high volatility and technical correction as it enters 2026, with significant downward risks accumulated from extreme price surges in late 2025 [1][4] Market Dynamics - Despite solid growth drivers in 2025 and potential indicated by ETF allocations, the extreme highs in gold, silver, and platinum group metals (PGMs) have created notable short-term correction pressures [1][4] - The potential threat from U.S. tariff policies has led to a large flow of precious metals into U.S. reserves, squeezing liquidity in other global markets [4] - The platinum market is expected to continue facing supply shortages in 2026, exacerbated by declining production in South Africa, which increases price sensitivity to buying interest [4] ETF and Speculative Positions - Gold and silver ETF holdings grew by 20% in 2025, but overall holdings remain below historical peaks, leaving room for potential investor entry [2][4] - Speculative net long positions have not reached extreme levels, indicating potential for further investment [2] - Technical indicators have raised warning signals, with platinum's daily RSI exceeding 90 in December, marking a severe overbought condition [2][4] - Historical data suggests that when prices deviate more than 20% from the 200-day moving average, a 10% to 20% deep correction is often anticipated [2][4] Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical tensions have intensified in January, becoming a key driver for gold prices, with U.S. military and diplomatic actions in Latin America and strategic interests in Greenland's mineral resources complicating geopolitical relations and enhancing gold's safe-haven appeal [5] - Spot gold has stabilized above $4600 per ounce, but the extreme price increases in 2025 suggest a tendency for the market to consolidate at high levels to digest profit-taking [5] Silver Market Performance - The silver market has also experienced volatility, with prices reaching a new high of $84 per ounce before facing pressure due to increased margin requirements from CME and profit-taking by investors [3][5] - New export quotas for silver from major supply countries, effective January 1, have reduced the number of companies allowed to export to 44, tightening supply expectations and supporting a subsequent price increase of over 7% [3][5] Long-term Outlook - The long-term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, but investors should be cautious of technical corrections following extreme overbought conditions [5] - Current gold and silver prices show strong resilience, but the dual pressures of policy uncertainty and increased margin requirements necessitate close monitoring of key support levels [5]