美联储主席“潜在接班人”放话：必须将利率降至3%

Core Viewpoint - Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of BlackRock's Global Fixed Income, advocates for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to 3%, emphasizing the independence of the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Rieder believes that lowering the interest rate to 3% would bring it closer to a neutral level, which he defines as neither stimulating nor restricting the economy [2]. - Currently, the Federal Funds rate is in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, and a reduction to 3% would decrease borrowing costs by at least 50 basis points [2]. - Despite the Fed's recent rate cuts, officials' median expectations for rate cuts in 2026 are limited to only one instance of 25 basis points, while market expectations suggest at least two cuts [2]. Group 2: Fed Independence and Leadership - Rieder expresses confidence in the Fed's independence, stating that the committee will make decisions based on data and integrity [3]. - He acknowledges the accuracy of reports regarding his interview for the Fed Chair position and mentions that President Trump may announce the nominee before or after attending the World Economic Forum in Davos [3]. - Other candidates for the Fed Chair position include Kevin Walsh, Kevin Hassett, and Chris Waller, but Trump has indicated that he has already decided on a nominee [3]. Group 3: Market Perspective - Rieder shares his market outlook, indicating a preference for a balanced investment approach rather than favoring small-cap stocks, and predicts that 2026 will be a market for investors rather than speculators [3].