EasyMarkets易信:比特币周期中段调整

Core Viewpoint - Recent volatility in the cryptocurrency market has raised investor concerns about whether Bitcoin has fully realized its potential benefits, with EasyMarkets suggesting that the current fluctuations are more indicative of a "mid-cycle correction" within a bullish trend rather than a complete reversal [1][3]. Historical Data Analysis - Historical data indicates that during previous strong bull markets, similar adjustment patterns were common, despite Bitcoin's decline from a high of $126,000 in early October [1][3]. - The price drops following the peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 were significant, with declines of 71%, 70%, and 51% respectively within the first 90 days, while the current drop of 36% since the peak on October 8 is relatively mild [1][3]. Technical Indicators - Bitcoin has recently reclaimed its 50-day moving average (approximately $89,400), which is typically seen as a signal of a shift from weak to strong momentum [2][4]. - The influx of institutional funds through spot ETFs is gradually altering Bitcoin's volatility characteristics, moving away from extreme price fluctuations [2][4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, the data suggests that the current cycle has not yet concluded, and investors should not be misled by short-term price noise [2][4]. - The current 36% retracement is viewed as a "mid-race break," with the potential for Bitcoin to challenge new highs as the effects of the halving continue to unfold and institutional holdings increase [2][4]. - Monitoring the support levels between $8,000 and $8,500 will be crucial in assessing whether this "mid-cycle correction" can conclude successfully [2][4].