瑞银大中华金融行业研究主管颜湄之：银行板块将迎基本面拐点，红利属性仍具防御价值

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is expected to perform steadily in 2025, driven by both funding and fundamental factors, with a turning point anticipated in 2026 [1][2]. Funding Factors - The banking sector, particularly Hong Kong banks, is expected to show strong performance in the first half of 2025, with high dividend yields attracting significant capital [1][4]. - A substantial number of Hong Kong bank stocks maintain dividend yields above 5%, making them appealing to investors [1][4]. - Insurance funds are identified as key buyers of bank stocks, with projections indicating over 600 billion yuan of insurance capital entering the market annually over the next two years, providing ongoing support for high-dividend sectors [1][4]. Fundamental Factors - 2025 is viewed as a "bottoming" year for the banking industry, with some large banks already reporting year-on-year revenue growth in the first three quarters, slightly exceeding market expectations [2][5]. - The positive performance of trading income and bond investment returns is contributing to revenue support for large banks [2][5]. - A forecast indicates that most banks will achieve year-on-year revenue growth in 2026, marking a shift from the previous five years of declining revenues [2][5]. - The pressure from narrowing interest margins is significantly easing, and state-owned banks are expected to continue capital injection arrangements, which may dilute earnings per share and dividends in the short term but will enhance capital strength and sustainability in the long run [6]. Market Dynamics - Bank stocks are characterized by their dividend and defensive attributes, often providing relative yield advantages in uncertain geopolitical or macroeconomic environments [6]. - However, there is a caution that bank stocks may underperform the market in the first half of the year due to shifts in market style [3][6].