政策催化叠加供需改善 碳酸锂价格单日上涨7500元

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market has shown strong performance, with prices rising significantly due to policy changes and supply-demand dynamics, leading to a bullish outlook for the lithium battery sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 13, lithium carbonate futures saw a peak increase of 11.99%, reaching 174,060 yuan/ton, before closing at 166,980 yuan/ton, a 7.44% increase with a trading volume of 608,200 contracts, marking a recent high in trading activity [1]. - The spot price for battery-grade lithium carbonate also rose, averaging 159,500 yuan/ton on January 13, up 7,500 yuan from the previous day, achieving a two-year high and marking seven consecutive days of increases [1]. Group 2: Policy Impact - Recent announcements from the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration indicate a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and a complete cancellation of the rebate by January 1, 2027, creating a clear timeline for market adjustments [1][2]. - This policy shift is expected to accelerate export activities among downstream battery companies, injecting additional support into the traditionally slow demand season and enhancing expectations for lithium carbonate demand [2]. Group 3: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand balance in the lithium industry has improved, driven by significant demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, as well as emerging applications like low-altitude economy and humanoid robots [2]. - Supply constraints due to stricter mining approvals and environmental regulations have led to a slow release of new production capacity, resulting in a noticeable contraction of effective industry capacity and ongoing inventory depletion [2]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - Analysts suggest that the lithium battery industry is transitioning from a deep adjustment phase to a recovery phase, although attention must be paid to the pace of capacity release and demand realization [2]. - High-quality development is expected to become the main theme in the lithium battery sector, with a shift away from previous extensive growth models towards enhancing product value and optimizing production costs [3].