瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊：长线资金通过ETF持续入市A股

Core Viewpoint - UBS Securities predicts that A-share earnings growth will accelerate to 8% year-on-year by 2026, supported by clearer policy backing and structural reforms in the stock market, leading to an upward revision of market expectations for earnings growth [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - Current personal investor sentiment is not overheated, with a moderate recovery expected in the issuance scale of actively managed public funds [1] - Long-term funds are continuously entering the A-share market through ETFs, with significant inflows into thematic ETFs related to artificial intelligence, driving industry leaders to outperform the market [1] - The increase in private securities investment fund shares is boosting the valuations of small-cap stocks, and insurance funds are expected to continue entering the market [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - UBS Securities holds an optimistic view for the A-share market in the first quarter, noting a traditional phenomenon of "spring excitement," where overall liquidity tends to be loose and stock valuations rise [1] - The current market trend is likely related to the "spring excitement" phenomenon, with global stock markets also experiencing upward movements since the beginning of the year [1] Group 3: Industry Allocation - The core theme remains technological innovation, with growth stocks expected to outperform value stocks [2] - Key allocation directions include strongly certain innovative industries such as telecommunications, electronics, hardware, and military, as well as cyclical sectors like heavy metals, chemicals, energy storage, and photovoltaics, which are seeing profit recovery and "de-involution" [2]