川渝甲醇市场：开工率持续下行，价格缘何未随上扬

Core Insights - The operating rate in the Sichuan-Chongqing region has been declining since November-December 2025, while prices have shown a reverse trend, initially rising with the drop in operating rates. However, from January 2026, despite the continued decline in operating rates, prices have not increased and instead exhibited a weak fluctuation pattern [1][3]. Group 1: Operating Rates and Prices - In December 2025, the operating rate in the Sichuan-Chongqing region remained around 34%, dropping to a low of 21% in January 2026 [3]. - Methanol prices in the Sichuan-Chongqing region have fluctuated between 2070-2280 RMB/ton since December 2025, with a slight decline observed in early January 2026 [3][6]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Local supply in December 2025 decreased further, but external supply, particularly from Xinjiang, remained abundant, leading to sustained price pressure due to high supply and low demand [5]. - In January 2026, local enterprises primarily focused on self-use methanol, which had a limited impact on overall supply. However, the influx of low-priced methanol from Xinjiang and significant amounts from Qinghai Salt Lake is expected to increase supply [6]. Group 3: Demand and Market Outlook - The demand side remains weak, with downstream operations running at low capacity and some enterprises, such as those producing glyphosate, maintaining low-load operations [6]. - Anticipated decreases in port inventory due to reduced imports from Iran may boost market confidence, but the overall supply increase expectation could still pressure prices downward [6].