开年狂涨38%，碳酸锂期货“20万”关口博弈加剧

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price has experienced significant volatility, with discussions intensifying around the possibility of it reaching the 200,000 yuan/ton mark due to various market dynamics and policy changes [2][5]. Price Movement and Market Dynamics - As of January 13, lithium carbonate futures surged to a high of 174,000 yuan/ton, marking a 38% increase since the beginning of the year, with a rise of 50,000 yuan/ton [2][3]. - The price fluctuations were influenced by a recent policy change regarding export tax rebates, which is expected to stimulate short-term demand from battery manufacturers [3][4]. - The market is currently experiencing a "not-so-dull" season, with demand significantly exceeding expectations compared to the same period in 2025 [4]. Supply and Demand Factors - The fundamental improvement in the supply-demand balance is a core support for the recent price increase, with supply constraints due to regulatory changes and long construction cycles for overseas mines [4][6]. - Demand from the commercial vehicle and energy storage sectors is notably increasing, shifting industry expectations from oversupply to a tight balance [4][6]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The rapid price increase has led to divergent views among institutions regarding the potential for lithium carbonate to return to the 200,000 yuan/ton level, with some predicting a balanced supply-demand scenario by 2026 [5][6]. - Analysts caution that if prices continue to rise and exceed 200,000 yuan/ton, it may lead to cost pressures on downstream demand due to simultaneous increases in other battery materials [7]. - Regulatory measures have been implemented to stabilize the lithium carbonate futures market amid heightened speculative trading, indicating a need for caution among investors [7].