智通财经网·2026-01-13 11:16Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Rio Tinto (RIO.US) and Glencore are in early discussions regarding a potential merger through "agreement arrangements" [1] Group 1: Rio Tinto's Position - Rio Tinto is in a strong position with attractive growth projects in copper, iron ore, and lithium, with 15-20 projects under development [1] - The company is expected to achieve a 3%-4% annual copper equivalent production growth over the next decade, primarily between 2025-2030 [1] - The potential merger with Glencore is surprising to the market, especially as Rio Tinto plans to divest $5-10 billion in non-core assets and reduce capital expenditure guidance by $1 billion to $10 billion annually [2] - Rio Tinto's copper growth options are limited and technically complex, while Glencore has lower capital intensity brownfield projects [4] Group 2: Glencore's Perspective - Glencore emphasizes the importance of industry consolidation and prudent acquisitions to enhance global influence and negotiation power [5] - The merger would provide Glencore with synergies from its coal business, copper growth options, and marketing department, supporting incremental production [5] - The opportunity to merge with Rio Tinto would allow Glencore to gain world-class iron ore and aluminum businesses, which have high entry barriers [5] Group 3: Valuation and Market Sentiment - Goldman Sachs does not provide a valuation for any potential transaction but notes that Glencore is regaining market trust after years of underperformance [7] - The ongoing dialogue between Glencore and Rio Tinto has been intermittent for over a decade, with renewed discussions starting more than a year ago [7] - As of January 9, Rio Tinto's London-listed stock has an enterprise value/EBITDA of 5.1 times, while Glencore's is 6.4 times [7] - Goldman Sachs maintains a "buy" rating for Rio Tinto with a 12-month target price of £71 per share, based on a weighted calculation of net asset value and enterprise value/EBITDA [8]