以史为鉴：高市早苗欲提前大选，日股将大涨？

Core Viewpoint - If Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announces an early election, historical data suggests that investors in the Japanese stock market will likely benefit in the short term, as the market has shown positive reactions during previous election periods [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Potential Early Election - Historical data indicates that in 10 out of 12 lower house elections since 1990, the Tokyo Stock Exchange Index rose during the month between the dissolution of the parliament and the new election [1]. - Analysts from Citigroup noted that the market is forming a consensus that high approval ratings for the cabinet imply a high probability of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party winning, which could lead to a stable political framework [1]. - If Kishida wins the early election, expectations for stable economic policies may lead to a potential six-month bullish trend in the Japanese stock market, with predictions that the Nikkei 225 index could reach 68,000 points, approximately 30% higher than the previous closing price [1]. Group 2: Historical Context and Approval Ratings - In the three elections where the Liberal Democratic Party secured the most seats, the stock market saw significant gains six months later, with increases of 44%, 70%, and 18% respectively [2]. - High approval ratings during election periods typically foster expectations of government stability and economic policy continuity, with Kishida's approval rating at 64% being higher than previous leaders during similar periods [2]. Group 3: Risks and Political Stability - Not all early gains in the stock market are sustained, as evidenced by six instances in the 12 elections where gains turned into losses after six months [5]. - Analysts caution that if the ruling party becomes more cautious, the likelihood of an early election may decrease, and there could be criticism regarding prioritizing political stability over policy implementation [5]. - The ruling coalition led by Kishida holds a slim majority in the House of Representatives but lacks an advantage in the House of Councillors, which may complicate legislative processes even if they win the election [5][6].