Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-13 11:33Core Viewpoint - The expected annual performance of China Merchants Bank is projected to show steady growth in revenue and net profit, with revenue forecasted between 332.35 billion to 363.78 billion yuan and net profit between 151.40 billion to 159.74 billion yuan by January 13, 2026 [1][5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast range is 3323.48 to 3637.82 million yuan, with an average estimate of 3480.44 million yuan and a median of 3490.99 million yuan [2][6]. - The net profit forecast range is 1514.01 to 1597.37 million yuan, with an average estimate of 1551.85 million yuan and a median of 1548.16 million yuan [2][6]. Business Performance Insights - China Merchants Bank maintains a leading advantage in the industry during a downturn, with stable key operating indicators, high ROE, and dividend yield [3][7]. - The bank's growth rate is moderating, with a prudent expansion of the balance sheet and optimization of retail, corporate, and financial investment ratios [3][7]. - The absolute advantage in net interest margin is solid, with expectations that the downward pressure will ease in 2026 [3][7]. Asset Quality Management - The bank has adequately exposed risks in corporate real estate, and the slope of rising retail risks is expected to slow down [3][8]. - The core revenue capacity and provision coverage ratio provide ample space for write-offs and disposals [3][8]. Intermediate Business Development - After experiencing a bottoming out, the wealth management business is expected to return to being a core revenue driver, with non-interest business elasticity significantly exceeding that of peers [3][9]. Shareholder Returns - The bank's dividend payout ratio remains among the top tier in the industry, with strong internal capital generation capabilities and competitive dividend yields [3][10].