【惠誉评论】2025年第四季度新房销售进一步走弱

Group 1: Market Performance - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the new housing market in China weakened further, with sales revenue declining by 11.2% year-on-year in the first 11 months, and the sold area decreasing by 8.1%, while average prices fell by 3.3%, which was worse than Fitch Ratings' previous forecast of a 7% decline in sales revenue, 5% in sold area, and 2% in average price [1][2] - The weak performance of the housing market reflects economic downturn, pressure on the labor market, and expectations of further price declines, leading to low buyer confidence, with policy support only temporarily easing market sentiment [1][2] - The speed of price decline in the second-hand housing market is faster than that of new homes, especially in first-tier cities, indicating that new home prices may face greater pressure to remain competitive against second-hand homes [1][2] Group 2: Inventory and Supply - The area of completed but unsold residential properties has decreased for nine consecutive months, but as of the end of November, it was only about 1% lower than at the end of 2024, while new housing sales area declined by 8.1% year-on-year, indicating that inventory reduction is lagging behind sales shrinkage [1][2] - High residential inventory may continue to exert downward pressure on housing prices in 2026 [1][2] - As of November 25, 2025, national land transaction volume decreased by 27% year-on-year, although transaction volume in first-tier cities increased by 36% [3] Group 3: Company Ratings - Fitch Ratings adjusted the outlook for China Jinmao Holdings Group Co., Ltd. and Beijing Capital Development Holdings (Group) Co., Ltd. from negative to stable, reflecting strong sales performance from China Jinmao and clearer business transformation direction for the Capital Group [2][3] - Fitch downgraded the rating of mixed-ownership real estate company Vanke Co., Ltd. by several notches to 'RD' due to its failure to repay the principal and interest of domestic bonds after the original grace period expired [2][3]