Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-13 11:44Core Viewpoint - The banking sector shows resilience with significant stock price increases, driven by executive buybacks and insurance capital inflows, indicating strong confidence in the sector's fundamentals and long-term value [3][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 13, the market experienced a pullback, but the banking sector remained active, with notable gains: Ningbo Bank up over 4%, Hangzhou Bank up over 3%, and several others including CITIC Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank up over 2% [1][9]. - The top-tier banking ETF (512800) saw an intraday price increase of over 1%, closing up 0.37% and surpassing the 5-day moving average [1][10]. Group 2: Executive Buybacks - The first executive buyback announcement of 2026 was made by Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, where some directors and executives purchased 192,000 shares from the secondary market, with a maximum investment of 1.23 million yuan [3][12]. - Nanjing Bank reported that its major shareholder, Zijin Group, increased its stake by 123,472,060 shares, representing 1.00% of the total share capital, continuing from previous increases since September 2025 [3][12]. Group 3: Insurance Capital Inflows - Insurance capital has been actively purchasing bank stocks, with Ping An Life announcing it reached a 20% stake in China Merchants Bank H-shares, triggering a mandatory bid [3][12]. - In 2025, insurance capital made 41 stake increases, the highest in nearly a decade, with bank stocks accounting for about 40% of these actions, highlighting their dominance in this area [3][12]. Group 4: Seasonal Trends - Historically, the banking sector has performed well before the Spring Festival, with the Shenwan Banking Index showing over 80% win rate in the past decade, except for 2020 [4][16]. - The average absolute return of the Shenwan Banking Index before the Spring Festival is 4.4%, with an average excess return of 4.9% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, making it the highest among 31 industry indices [4][16]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Factors expected to drive the banking sector's performance leading up to the Spring Festival in 2026 include continued growth policies, ongoing insurance asset scarcity, and increased market volatility [7][16]. - The banking ETF (512800) is noted for its efficiency in tracking the banking sector, with a current scale of 11.95 billion yuan and an average daily trading volume exceeding 800 million yuan since 2025, making it the largest and most liquid banking ETF in A-shares [7][16].